LAU Faculty Call for Context on Cancer Estimates in The Lancet

Drs. Hady Ghanem and Michelle Cherfane from LAU’s school of medicine bring clinical and epidemiological expertise to a forum in “The Lancet,” making the case for context-aware analysis of global cancer trends.

For more than a century, The Lancet has stood as one of the world’s most influential medical journals, shaping clinical practice, public health policy and scientific debate across continents. Beyond original research, its correspondence section serves as a vital forum where physicians and scholars interrogate findings, refine interpretations and ensure that global evidence is read with appropriate rigor and context.

It was within this forum that two faculty members from the LAU Gilbert and Rose-Marie Chagoury School of Medicine—Dr. Hady Ghanem, clinical associate professor and head of the division of hematology-oncology and Dr. Michelle Cherfane, associate professor of epidemiology and population health discipline coordinator, contributed to Volume 407 of the journal, published on February 7, 2026.

Their correspondence addressed recent global estimates of cancer burden and mortality, offering a carefully reasoned perspective that highlighted the importance of evidence-based interpretation, particularly in settings where health data systems face structural limitations.

The contributors engaged with findings from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study that reported a significant rise in cancer mortality in Lebanon over recent decades. While such estimates are widely cited and influential in shaping national and international health priorities, the authors emphasized that Lebanon faces persistent challenges in health data collection. National cancer registries remain incomplete, vital statistics are often delayed and systematic reporting across regions is limited.

As a result, model-based estimates, though indispensable for understanding trends, may overstate or understate actual mortality, particularly when comprehensive, up-to-date local data are unavailable. Drs. Ghanem and Cherfane stressed that interpreting these figures without acknowledging these gaps risks misinforming policy and public discourse.

From a clinical and population health perspective, Drs. Ghanem and Cherfane jointly illustrated how population-level figures translate into real-world consequences for patients and health systems, with cancer statistics guiding screening strategies, treatment planning and resource allocation. Their combined expertise underscored how methodological assumptions and gaps in data can shape national estimates and influence public discourse.

Together, their correspondence conveys a central message: Global figures must be interpreted in the context of local data realities. In countries where cancer registries are incomplete or inconsistently updated, such as Lebanon, the estimated mortality may reflect surveillance limitations rather than true epidemiological shifts.

To that end, the authors called for sustained investment in national cancer registries, improved reporting systems and transparent acknowledgment of uncertainty in modeling exercises—steps that are critical to designing effective health policy, improving patient outcomes, and building public trust in health data.